大越期货原油早报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's administration signaled a relaxation of its attitude towards China, stabilizing the financial market and causing oil prices to stabilize and rebound. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with Brent crude briefly falling below the $60 mark, exerting significant psychological pressure on the market. Currently, there is a lack of geopolitical impetus, and oil prices are oscillating at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump said the proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods was unsustainable, and blamed China for the latest deadlock in trade negotiations. China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The Putin - Trump summit may be held in two weeks or later. The situation is neutral. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $62.19 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $62.11 per barrel, with a basis of 34.77 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. - Inventory: For the week ending October 10 in the US, API crude inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels (expected increase: 233,000 barrels), and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected increase: 288,000 barrels). Cushing region inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 17, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels. This is a bearish signal. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is a bearish signal. - Main Position: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased. As of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased. This is a bearish signal [3] 2. Recent News - The US Treasury Secretary, Beisente, plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of US tariffs on China. He also called on the IMF and the World Bank to take a tougher stance on China. - The Israeli military launched attacks on Hamas targets in southern Gaza in response to what it called Hamas' violation of the cease - fire agreement. - Trump urged Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept Russia's conditions to end the conflict and warned that if Ukraine refused, Russia would "destroy" the country [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The threat of Trump's tariffs has eased, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields. - Bearish Factors: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutting down, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases. - Market Drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply. - Risk Points: The unity within OPEC+ may be disrupted, leading to increased production, and the war risk may escalate [6] 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased from $61.91 to $61.06, a decline of 1.37%. WTI crude decreased from $58.27 to $56.99, a decline of 2.20%. SC crude remained unchanged at $443.2. Oman crude increased from $62.38 to $63.00, an increase of 0.99%. - Spot Quotes: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decline of 1.66%. WTI decreased from $58.27 to $57.46, a decline of 1.39%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $63.16 to $63.51, an increase of 0.55%. Shengli crude decreased from $59.48 to $59.43, a decline of 0.08%. Dubai crude increased from $62.75 to $62.85, an increase of 0.16%. - Inventory Trends: API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels for the week ending October 10. EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels for the same week [7][9][10][14] 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [17][19]