大越期货燃料油早报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [3] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to decline, there are signs of easing between the US and Russia, and the trade tension between the US and China persists. Fuel oil continues to be under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. With relatively sufficient supply in the spot fundamentals, it will operate weakly in the short term. FU2601 is expected to run in the range of 2640 - 2680, and LU2512 in the range of 3070 - 3110 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For fuel oil, the fundamentals show that Asia may have sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins suppresses refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contract declined in October. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of October 15. The price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending down. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The expected price ranges are given for FU2601 and LU2512 [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Likely Positive Factors: Russia's extension of fuel export restrictions [4] - Likely Negative Factors: Uncertainty in demand optimism and the easing of relations between the US and Russia after their talks [4] - Market Drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks while demand remains neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Asia may have sufficient supply in November, and high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins suppress raw material demand. The premium of low - sulfur fuel oil term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and weak demand [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 369.75 dollars/ton with a basis of 26 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 430.6 dollars/ton with a basis of - 6 yuan/ton. Spot is at par with futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 15 was 2235.9 million barrels, an increase of 174 million barrels [3] - Market Chart: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending down [3] - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis other than the basis information [3] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 15 is provided, showing fluctuations and an increase in the week of October 15 [8]