Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-20 03:09Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PVC: Supply-demand pressure is high, and the fundamental supply-demand contradiction is difficult to ease. The futures and spot prices are both weakening. Supply is expected to increase as some maintenance enterprises resume production next week. The peak season shows no obvious improvement, and downstream product enterprises perform averagely. The export market is affected by India's anti-dumping tax, with a wait-and-see attitude. The cost side provides bottom support, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, with a bearish view on rebounds [3]. - Caustic Soda: The price of downstream alumina continues to decline, and the industry's profit is shrinking with increasing losses. Some enterprises have cut production passively, so the demand-side support for caustic soda is weak. In the medium to long term, there is demand support as alumina has many planned projects in Q1 next year, which may lead to concentrated stockpiling in Q4 this year. After the National Day, non-aluminum industries may have purchasing intentions due to low prices. However, in the short term, the supply of caustic soda is increasing, while downstream demand is average, so the market sentiment is weak, and the price lacks support. A bearish view is recommended for short-term trading, and the downstream replenishment rhythm needs to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - Price and Market Trends: The macro environment has weakened, and the caustic soda market has been affected by factors such as high开工 rates, inventory changes, and alumina demand. The futures price has fluctuated, and the spot price has shown a downward trend in some periods [8]. - Supply: The national average weekly weighted开工 rate of sample enterprises decreased to 85.45% from 88.24% last week, and the caustic soda production decreased by 3.17% to 82.43 tons. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance or faced unexpected failures [27]. - Demand: The demand from the alumina industry is weak due to its poor profitability. However, new alumina projects are expected to drive demand growth in the future. Non-aluminum industries may increase purchases after the National Day [4]. - Export: The export volume decreased in August but the export profit increased in September [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Trends: The PVC futures price has been on a downward trend due to weak supply-demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also weakened [63]. - Supply: The overall开工 rate of PVC powder decreased to 75.14% this week, with significant decreases in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Many enterprises have carried out maintenance [85]. - Demand: The two major downstream industries, profiles and pipes, face great pressure, and the real estate industry continues to have a negative impact on demand. The downstream orders are lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory is high [93]. - Inventory: The inventory has been increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years [101]. - Export: The net export volume decreased in August. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.24 tons, and the export volume was 28.41 tons [113][119].