大越期货豆粕早报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2880 - 2940. The market is neutral, with the U.S. soybean price being affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations and harvest weather, and the domestic soybean meal price being influenced by U.S. soybean trends, high imports, and spot - price discounts [9]. 2.2. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3980 - 4080. It is neutral, supported by the cost - effectiveness of domestic soybeans compared to imports but suppressed by high imports and expected domestic yield increases [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No specific content provided 3.2. Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above 1000 points, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain high, and soybean meal inventory has declined from its high. The soybean market will return to a range - bound pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - breeding profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October [13]. - The soybean meal market will remain volatile, waiting for clear U.S. soybean production and the outcome of the Sino - U.S. tariff war [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors are high domestic soybean imports in October and expected high U.S. soybean yields [14]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support for domestic soybeans from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors are high Brazilian soybean yields and expected increases in domestic soybean production [15]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price Data - From October 9 - 17, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2965 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume varied from 6.51 - 22.38 million tons [16]. - From October 9 - 17, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot markets showed certain fluctuations [18]. 3.4.2. Inventory Data - As of a certain period, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The oil - mill soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.4.3. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. 3.5. Positioning Data - The positions of the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans have changed, with the main short positions in soybean meal decreasing and those in soybeans increasing [9][11]. 3.6. Others - Sino - U.S. soybean trade is affected by tariff negotiations and weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [13][14]. - Domestic soybean imports in October are high, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its peak [13]. - The profitability of domestic pig - breeding has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened [13]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the profit margin of the futures market has fluctuated slightly [53].