豆粕周报：需求进入淡季，豆粕弱势震荡-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, US soybean weather, and import volume. The short - term trend of US soybeans is mainly in a volatile state above the 1000 mark. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are also in a volatile pattern, influenced by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic demand [10][11]. - The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand for soybean meal has entered the off - season, and the price is affected by factors such as import volume, oil mill inventory, and downstream demand [1][10][11]. - The pig - raising industry has seen a recent decline in profits, and the price of live pigs has also fallen back. The demand for soybean meal in the short term is relatively weak, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather still affects the market [13][14][56]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips No information is provided under this section. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are still deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will be further guided by growth and harvesting conditions, import volume, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction of pig - raising profits in the domestic market has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal in October has decreased, which suppresses the price of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still affects the market [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for soybean meal - There are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [14]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for soybean meal - The total import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in October [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America continues [14]. Bullish for soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. Bearish for soybeans - Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months: The planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have changed. The production of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be 1.69 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans is expected to be 0.49 billion tons [23]. - US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress: In 2024, the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The harvesting rate also showed a certain growth trend [24][25][26]. - Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress in the 2024/25 season: The planting rate and harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans showed a growth trend, and were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - Argentine soybean planting progress in the 2024/25 season: The planting rate of Argentine soybeans showed an upward trend, and was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided under this section. 3.6 Trading Strategies Soybean meal trading strategy - Futures: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - Options strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybean trading strategy - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3900 - 4100, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - Options strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, the follow - up of Sino - US trade relations and tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - Second important: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors, and the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].