大越期货白糖周报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the 05 contract. Whether it can further rebound remains to be observed [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the fall of foreign sugar prices below 16 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated the global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season to be 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - Positive factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, and the medium - and long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on imported raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is beneficial to sugar in the long term [8]. - Negative factors: StoneX and Czarnikow predicted a global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool and USDA predicted an increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. SCA Brasil and Conab predicted a decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The 25/26 season's supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different predictions. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 20,000 tons; StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicted a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicted a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicted a supply surplus [32]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is predicted to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is predicted to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [34]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Imported raw sugar processing cost: In September 2025, the average ICE raw sugar price was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost after 50% tariff was 5,454 yuan per ton [39]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.