Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally showed a volatile rebound trend. After continuous declines in the early stage, a technical rebound occurred. The overall market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [4][5]. - Positive factors include the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton was in a volatile rebound trend. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons; according to the USDA September report, the output is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report for the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not explicitly stated in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: The USDA's September global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons. The ICAC's 2025/26 season global output is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 season data shows output of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons [4][11][13][15]. - Price and Trade Data: In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.5 Position Data Not explicitly stated in the provided content.
大越期货棉花周报-20251020
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-20 03:48