大越期货燃料油周报-20251020

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Weekly Report (10.13 - 10.17) [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Last week, international crude oil fluctuated weakly, and fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, showing a weak overall trend. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,658 yuan/ton, down 4.42% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, down 6.22% for the week [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened due to weak downstream demand and continuous sufficient supply recently. The estimated arbitrage arrivals of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in October are expected to increase. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.7 - 2.9 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in October, higher than about 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in September [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure. Affected by high existing inventories and continuous and stable inflows of Russian high - sulfur products, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in October remains sufficient. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins has suppressed refineries' raw material demand. Operationally, short - term trading of high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended in the range of 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading of low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended in the range of 3,050 - 3,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View - International crude oil and fuel oil prices weakened last week. High - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are affected by sufficient supply. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,658 yuan/ton with a 4.42% weekly decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,091 yuan/ton with a 6.22% weekly decline. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and Singapore's October arrivals are expected to increase. Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, with sufficient supply and suppressed refinery demand. Short - term trading ranges are given for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,808 yuan/ton, and the current value is 2,688 yuan/ton, down 4.25%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,331 yuan/ton, and the current value is 3,175 yuan/ton, down 4.68% [4]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various fuel oil products in Zhoushan and Singapore have different changes. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.38%, and Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.58% [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Consumption Data: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of Shandong fuel oil from 2021 to 2025, but specific numerical data for the current period are not further elaborated [6][7][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory: From July 23 to October 8, Singapore's fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on July 23, the inventory was 19.909 million barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels compared to the previous period. On October 8, the inventory was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period [9]. - There are also charts about Singapore's inventory seasonal trend and Zhoushan Port's fuel oil inventory trend, but specific numerical data are not provided [10][11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical data are not provided [13].