大越期货贵金属周报-20251020

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].