Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - October 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Low valuation and weak drivers coexist, lacking short - term directional breakthrough power. Attention should be paid to export policies and the progress of gas - head maintenance [5] Fundamental Points - After the spot price dropped to a low level, trading volume increased in production areas such as Shandong and Henan, and the enthusiasm of traders to replenish inventory increased, providing short - term support for prices [4] - India opened a tender for 2 million tons of urea on October 15. If China's export policy is adjusted, it may relieve the inventory pressure [4] - Enterprise inventory increased month - on - month, reaching a record high, suppressing price rebounds [4] - The daily output remains at a five - year high of 180,000 - 190,000 tons, and the gas - head maintenance is delayed until December. The oversupply situation remains unchanged [4] Data Analysis Inventory - China's weekly urea enterprise inventory data from 2021 - 2025 is presented in units of thousand tons and ten thousand tons [7] - Urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi (port + inland) data from 2021 - 2025 is presented in ten thousand tons [8][9] Futures - Urea futures main contract position volume and trading volume data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in units of hands [10][11][12] - Urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecast quantity data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in units of sheets [13][14][15][16] Price - Henan small - particle market price, basis, and price difference between large and small particles data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [17][18][19] - Shandong small - particle market price, basis, and price difference between large and small particles data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [20][21][22] - Urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spread seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [23][25][27] Cost and Profit - Urea production costs of fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [28][29] - Urea production profits of fixed - bed, natural gas, and water - coal slurry gasification from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [30][31][32] Production - related - Urea production enterprise backlog order days data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in days [33][34] - Urea capacity utilization rate (weekly) and total daily output data from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][37] Compound Fertilizer - Compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, inventory, Shandong production cost, and production gross profit data from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] International Price - China's small - particle FOB price and Middle East small - particle FOB price data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in US dollars/ton [41][42][45] Coal - related - Steam coal spot price data of different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented in yuan/ton [43][44] - Steam coal port inventory data from 2014 - 2024 are presented in ten thousand tons [46]
尿素产业链周报-20251020
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-10-20 05:28