大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251020

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 20, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expectation of a weak and volatile trend in the market today. Factors contributing to this include the "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern in the long - term for crude oil, limited support for the cost side of polyolefins, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and relatively high industrial inventories [4][6]. Summary by Sections LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The agricultural film industry is operating steadily with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6910 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 19, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.0 tons (+3.7), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and relatively high industrial inventories [4]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows improved but still contracting manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil provides limited cost support. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is increasing but still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 68, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, considered bearish [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 67.9 tons (-0.3), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish sign [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rate, and relatively high industrial inventories [6]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Market Data Tables - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 6910 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6929 (+19), the basis is - 19 (-59), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 58.0 (+3.7), and the social inventory is 54.6 (+2.1) [8]. - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 6550 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6618 (+23), the basis is - 68 (-33), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 67.9 (-0.3), and the social inventory is 34.9 (-2.3) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the import dependence showing a downward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].