白糖早报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply situation. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. There are signs of tight supply in the short - term, but the long - term supply gap is gradually narrowing. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. The near - month main contract SR2601 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the SR2605 contract. Whether it can continue to rebound remains to be seen. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The report does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicts a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 25/26 season, while ISO estimates a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. The overall situation is bearish. [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,810 yuan, with a basis of 398 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, a neutral situation. [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. [6] - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, and it is generally bearish. [5] - Expectation: New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract SR2601 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the SR2605 contract. The SR2601 contract has filled the gap in the short - term, and whether it can further rebound remains to be observed. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus The report does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740,000 tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420,000 tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40,000 tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115,000 tons. [23][33] - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton. [35] 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, being generally bearish [5].