棉花早报-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors. The market is expected to show short - term rebound trends, and the main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have varying data on 2025/2026 production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report has production at 25.622 million tons, consumption at 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory at 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast has production at 6.36 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.22 million tons. The overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,679, with a basis of 1,344 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The market shows a short - term rebound trend. The main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): The total global production in 2025/2026 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; total consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [8][10]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In 2025/2026, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content