宏观周报（2025/10/13-10/17）：美国区域性银行爆雷，市场情绪从恐慌到修复-20251020

Group 1: US Market Overview - The US market is experiencing a "data vacuum" period with policy expectations trading, as Powell hinted at a potential halt in balance sheet reduction in the coming months[5] - The VIX index surged significantly, indicating heightened market volatility, while the financial sector was the worst performer due to regional bank failures[11] - Gold prices reached historic highs, breaking the $4200 per ounce mark, driven by multiple factors including interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions[12] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - China's government is enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand to navigate complex external environments, leading to a structural market characterized by risk aversion[5] - Japan's political instability has suppressed interest rate hike expectations, causing significant fluctuations in stock, bond, and currency markets[13] - In Europe, political uncertainties are dampening growth expectations, with the ECB emphasizing its readiness to address potential market turmoil[15] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A multi-asset FOF portfolio is recommended, with allocations of 60% in equities, 30% in fixed income, and 10% in commodities, achieving an annualized return of 28%[37] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on US Treasuries for medium to long-term opportunities and allocating a portion to gold due to expected price support from various factors[44] - For stable returns in a volatile market, mixed equity and bond funds are suggested to balance capital appreciation potential[44]