原油周评：供给压力维持，油价或维持弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were mainly weak, and the overall unilateral downward pattern remained unchanged, with prices approaching the lows in May. The supply - side expectation of loosening in the commodity attribute, weak winter consumption, and the expected increase in inventory data will continue to drag down oil prices. In terms of the financial attribute, although the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year, factors such as the U.S. federal government shutdown, delayed economic data, and banking turmoil make it difficult for global financial easing to effectively boost commodity prices. Politically, with the cease - fire agreements in the Middle East and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical factor is less likely to have a significant impact on oil prices. Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure and are unlikely to recover significantly [12][18][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since the National Day, oil prices have been in a unilateral downward channel. Last week, they neared the price lows since May. Although there was a slight rebound over the weekend, the downward trend continued. It is expected that oil prices will remain weak this week, with a suggested price range of 415 - 440 yuan/barrel. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies. However, as U.S. oil prices have squeezed producers' costs, the downside space may be limited [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices broke downward. The expectation of a looser supply side and the easing of geopolitical tensions significantly suppressed oil prices. The U.S. government shutdown and delayed economic data also contributed to the continuous decline in oil prices, which broke through the lows since May [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - U.S. government shutdown: Last week, the U.S. regional banking sector slumped, with the KBW regional bank index dropping 3.6%, the largest single - day decline since May. The market value of 74 large U.S. banks evaporated by over $100 billion in a single day due to loan fraud incidents in at least two medium - sized banks, which may further hit market confidence. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and the delay in key economic data has led to concerns about the Fed's future decisions. The market expects that the upcoming data may support an interest rate cut, and it is likely that the Fed will continue to cut rates at the end - of - October meeting [22]. - This week's CPI trend: The report mentions the U.S. CPI and core CPI data but does not provide specific analysis on this week's CPI trend [24][26]. - Geopolitical situation: In the Middle East, the visit of the U.S. president and the signing of the cease - fire agreement have reduced concerns about the geopolitical situation, but there are still uncertainties due to disputes over the implementation of the cease - fire agreement. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, after the U.S. - Russia call, there are expectations of a cease - fire, which may affect the situation, and continuous attention is needed [28]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC+ production increase: OPEC+ increased its daily production by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels in September, reflecting the implementation of approved production increase quotas [32][43]. - Differences in production growth between Saudi Arabia and Russia: There are differences in the production growth rates of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but specific details are not elaborated in the report [33]. - Synchronous production increase in Iran and Iraq: Iran and Iraq have both increased their oil production, but no specific analysis is provided in the report [36]. - Stable recovery of U.S. production: U.S. oil production has been increasing recently and has not been restricted by weak consumption [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - Increasing supply - demand surplus: OPEC's monthly report shows that although oil demand is expected to be stable, OPEC+ production increase may lead to a supply - side pressure. The IEA monthly report indicates that the global oil supply - demand surplus will be more severe than previously expected, which may lead to an increase in inventory and suppress oil prices [43]. - Weak manufacturing in China and the U.S.: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the U.S. have not improved, which may affect oil demand [46]. - Slowdown in refined oil production: The production of refined oil has slowed down, which may also reduce oil demand [52]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Continuous increase in crude oil inventory: In the week ending October 10, U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories both increased significantly more than expected. The increase in U.S. production and the decrease in refinery utilization rate led to the accumulation of inventory [53]. - Difficult to boost with refined oil de - stocking: In the week ending October 10, U.S. gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased. However, the weak situation on both the consumption and supply sides makes it difficult for refined oil prices to support oil prices [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure due to the weak performance of the three attributes (commodity, financial, and political), and it is difficult for them to recover significantly [63].