Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate faster than supply, leading to inventory reduction in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,700 yuan/ton with no change. The net position of the top 20 is - 150,105 hands, a decrease of 12,910 hands. The main contract's open interest is 138,434 hands, a decrease of 20,566 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 30,705 hands/ton, an increase of 19 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 872 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The average price of amblygonite is 7,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton with no change [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons. The monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons. The monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, an increase of 1%. The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, an increase of 11,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton with no change. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 81,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25,000 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 326,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 155,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 134,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, a decrease of 2%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton with no change. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, an increase of 2%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000 vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,604,000 vehicles, an increase of 209,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, an increase of 0.55%. The cumulative sales volume is 11,228,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,908,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume is 222,000 vehicles, a decrease of 20,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 1.758 million vehicles, an increase of 830,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 19.86%, an increase of 0.03%. The 40 - day average volatility is 33.31%, a decrease of 0.45% [2] Option Situation - The total call open interest is 93,879 contracts, an increase of 15,242 contracts. The total put open interest is 35,432 contracts, an increase of 5,899 contracts. The put - call ratio of total open interest is 37.74%, an increase of 0.1861%. The at - the - money implied volatility is 0.31%, an increase of 0.0202% [2] Industry News - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology states that to achieve the goal of providing stable and reliable connection and computing capabilities for intelligent connected vehicles, three aspects need to be strengthened: increasing the installation rate of advanced vehicle communication capabilities, deepening network coverage of the driving environment, and matching network characteristics with scenario requirements. According to KBB, the average transaction price of new cars in the US exceeded 50,000 US dollars for the first time in September, reaching a record 50,080 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The reasons include tariff - induced cost pressure on enterprises and the approaching expiration of the US federal electric vehicle tax credit policy. The vice - minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the ministry is formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the development of the intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry, including clarifying development goals, deploying key tasks, accelerating the formulation of standards for combined driving assistance and autonomous driving, optimizing management in the production field of intelligent connected vehicles, and standardizing industry competition. In September, the sales volume of pick - up trucks was 46,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 14.6%. From January to September, the sales volume was 432,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. In September, the sales volume of new energy pick - up trucks was 4,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 104% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 54,000 vehicles, a 440% increase [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251020
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:46