瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton. High inventory exerts significant pressure on the urea market. With the urea price falling below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about replenishing at low prices, and they are maintaining a strategy of buying on dips. However, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and urea shipments have slowed down. The probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high. The agricultural demand in the north has been postponed, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 322,187 lots, an increase of 8,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 43,322 lots, a decrease of 3,148 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,238 lots, a decrease of 56 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1590 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1550 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1560 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and in Anhui is 1570 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 370 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 385 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. The enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a decrease of 5.02%. The daily urea output is 188,600 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly urea output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32%. The melamine operating rate is 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 167 yuan/ton, and the monthly output of compound fertilizer is 531.33 tons, a decrease of 19 tons. The weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 109.21 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. As of October 16, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 132.05 tons, a decrease of 6.97 tons compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]