Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The提货 volume of the downstream general trade warehouse has increased significantly. Coupled with the decline in rubber prices, the downstream replenishment sentiment has improved, and the overall出库 volume of the warehouse is greater than the inbound volume, resulting in a destocking of the total inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises has returned to the pre - holiday level, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,100 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,810 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,630 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,360 lots, down 281 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 63,027 lots, down 1,972 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,860 lots, down 508 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 10,599 lots, down 1,637 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 131,800 tons, down 3,200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 41,228 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,028 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is - 1,782 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, down 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.9 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 50.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.95%, up 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.55%, up 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.54%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51% [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251020
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:40