瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].