瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Industrial silicon started to recover slightly today, but it is expected to maintain a volatile operation. Whether it can rise in the future depends on the production reduction situation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,565 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 135 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 114,236 lots, a decrease of 17,557 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -37,784 lots, an increase of 4,414 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 49,303 lots [2] - The closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -365 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price difference between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -365 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the Si main contract was 785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC was 11,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg [2] - The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.53 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg [2] - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 69.36%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 16, Hesheng Silicon Industry repaid 900 shares of margin - shorted stocks and sold 1,700 shares. The selling amount was 84,400 yuan, accounting for 0.07% of the outflow amount on that day. The margin balance was 3.3669 million yuan, lower than the 40% quantile level in history [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly declined this week compared with last week. Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, and the production cost of manufacturers has increased, accelerating the implementation of production reduction plans. Some enterprises that have exhausted their raw materials have chosen to stop production. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material reserves and are waiting to enter the market. Currently, some manufacturers in Xinjiang are actively producing, and some are conducting transactions with futures - cash merchants, locking in profits in advance through forward contracts. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis of Downstream Industries - In the organic silicon sector, the inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit has rebounded slightly but is still in the loss range. The comprehensive operating rate has decreased month - on - month and is lower than the historical average, with a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is as high as 275,000 tons, higher than the historical average. Silicon wafers and solar cells are in a loss state, and only components are profitable [2] - In the aluminum alloy sector, the overall inventory has decreased slightly, the price has remained flat, the operating situation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand is average, and the driving effect on industrial silicon is limited [2]