瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251020

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-10-20 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capacity loss due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry exceeded the output from restored capacities, leading to a slight decline in overall production [2]. - Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. The persistently low freight rates have also weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, resulting in an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week [2]. - Due to the under - performance of foreign vessel unloading under multiple factors, the methanol port inventory decreased last week. The提货 in the East China region was good, with inventory decreasing, while the South China region saw an increase in inventory due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading [2]. - The import of methanol in October is still expected to be sufficient, and there is still a possibility of an increase in port inventory [2]. - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable, maintaining a high - level operation. There are no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 1,071,256 lots, an increase of 12,531 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 176,580 lots, a decrease of 27,277 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 14,902, an increase of 3,620 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2052.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 227.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 325 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 270 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 99.70 million tons, a decrease of 835,000 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.44 million tons, an increase of 317,000 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 16.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.7598 million tons, an increase of 657,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 40.88%, an increase of 6.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.92%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 72.52%, a decrease of 10.44 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 63.12%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 92.39%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1033 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.14%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 18.72%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.72%, unchanged [2] 7. Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 359,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 6.04%. The orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 228,900 tons, an increase of 113,700 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 98.64% [2]. - As of October 15, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.4914 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 835,000 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 317,000 tons [2]. - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01% [2]