燃料油早报-20251021

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near - month spread weakened, the basis weakened month - on - month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking weakened month - on - month but was at a historical low year - on - year. The month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week. From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue inventory increased, reaching a historical high year - on - year. The floating storage inventory stabilized after destocking and was at a high level year - on - year. The ARA residue inventory increased slightly and was at a low level in the same period of history. The EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah increased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread will be viewed within a range recently, with a bearish outlook for the end of the 01 contract. This week, the LU market remained weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low - sulfur market has a pattern of short - selling on rallies, and attention should be paid to the quota usage for the internal - external spread [3][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 13th to October 17th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 decreased by 6.10, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by 4.38, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.27, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 10.00, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 5.62, the LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.57, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.72 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From October 13th to October 17th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 10.25, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 8.05, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 14.15, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 2.06, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.01, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 1.09 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From October 13th to October 17th, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by 8.67, the FOB price of VLSFO decreased by 8.52, the 380 basis decreased by 0.15, the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.7, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 1.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - From October 13th to October 17th, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 67, the price of FU 05 decreased by 58, the price of FU 09 decreased by 48, the FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9, the FU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 10, and the FU 09 - 01 spread increased by 19 [2] Domestic LU Data - From October 13th to October 17th, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 94, the price of LU 05 decreased by 73, the price of LU 09 decreased by 73, the LU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 21, the LU 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged, and the LU 09 - 01 spread increased by 21 [3]