芳烃橡胶早报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - For PTA, as polyester shows no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation phase, but the low processing fee has persisted for a long time, so additional maintenance situations should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover as there is limited new production in the far - month [2]. - For MEG, it will enter a continuous inventory accumulation phase due to high existing capacity utilization and new device production, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and price ratio, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunities near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the overall inventory pressure is limited as the finished - product inventory and operation rate of polyester yarn have not increased significantly, staple fiber exports remain highly growing, and the spot efficiency is acceptable, so attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, with the stable national explicit inventory at a relatively low level and the stable price of Thai cup - lump rubber affected by rainfall, the strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Data Changes: From October 14 to 20, crude oil decreased by 0.3, PTA inner - market spot price dropped by 25, and polyester gross profit decreased by 49. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt + valid forecast increased by 2,946, and the sales - to - production ratio increased by 0.05 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end TA partial device load increased, polyester load remained stable, inventory slightly accumulated, basis weakened, and spot processing fee stayed low. PX domestic operation rate declined, overseas partial maintenance took place, PXN widened, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened [2]. MEG - Price and Data Changes: From October 14 to 20, MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, MEG inner - market price dropped by 15, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 15. The MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load remained unchanged, and the port inventory remained at 57.9 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end domestic maintenance and restart coexisted, load slightly increased, overseas maintenance took place, port inventory slightly accumulated, basis remained stable, and coal - based efficiency and price ratio further shrank [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Data Changes: From October 14 to 20, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, and the short - fiber profit increased by 11. The pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber increased by 60 [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end device operation was stable, operation rate maintained at 94.3%, sales - to - production ratio improved, and inventory slightly decreased. The operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increased, and both raw material and finished - product inventory decreased [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price and Data Changes: From October 14 to 20, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 70, and the price of Shanghai whole - latex increased by 70. The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 200, and the difference between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged [2]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory was stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber was stable due to rainfall [2]. Styrene - Price and Data Changes: From October 14 to 20, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 80, the price of hydrogenated benzene (Shandong) dropped by 130, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 65. The domestic profit of EPS increased by 115, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 64 [6]. - Market Situation: Not provided in the report.