棉花早报-20251021

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a mixed picture with both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include expected high production, high inventory, downward - trending 20 - day moving average, and bearish主力持仓. Bullish factors are the positive basis and reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and short - term rebounds have occurred in the market, with the main 01 contract reaching the pressure level around 13,500, where there will be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [4][5][6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple reports show different production, consumption, and inventory data. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts 2025/26 annual production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report forecasts production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,679, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,214, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The market has shown a short - term rebound, and the main 01 contract has reached the pressure level around 13,500, where there will be a struggle between bulls and bears [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September): Global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [10][11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); global consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); and the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast (October): In 2025/26, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.