Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025-10-21 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575-85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Market Analysis of Different Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8502, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - Main Position: The short position of the main contract of soybean oil has decreased. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will oscillate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but subsequently it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9334, with a basis of 16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - Main Position: The long position of the main contract of palm oil has decreased. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 will oscillate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 310, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. - Main Position: The long position of the main contract of rapeseed oil has decreased. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空 Analysis - 利多: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Data Supply - Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats are presented in the form of charts, showing the inventory changes from 2015 to 2025 [6][7][9][17][19][21][23] Demand - The apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption changes from 2015 to 2025 [13][15]
大越期货油脂早报-20251021
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:02