建信期货原油日报-20251021

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different sectors such as crude oil asphalt, PTA, MEG, etc. [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 3: Core View - The supply side shows that OPEC+ production is basically within the quota, but there is still room for growth in the future. Non - OPEC+ countries will also contribute a large amount of supply, resulting in significant supply pressure. The demand side sees IEA and EIA slightly raising demand expectations in their monthly reports, but the demand increase is far lower than the supply. The inventory accumulation speed accelerates in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall, both the macro and supply - demand aspects are bearish. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset, and reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - WTI: Opened at $57.03, closed at $57.25, with a high of $57.32, a low of $56.15, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 35.94 million hands. - Brent: Opened at $60.73, closed at $61.16, with a high of $61.25, a low of $59.99, a rise of 0.61%, and a trading volume of 31.54 million hands. - SC: Opened at 438.6 yuan/barrel, closed at 435.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 435.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 9.3 million hands [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Treat crude oil with a bearish mindset and consider reverse arbitrage [6]. Group 5: Industry News - US President Trump said that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil, it will continue to pay "huge" tariffs [7]. - Israeli media reported on October 19 that Israeli senior officials expect the Israeli Air Force to conduct more strikes in the Gaza Strip [7]. - Indian media reported on the 17th that due to increased domestic market demand, India's oil imports from Russia rebounded in the first half of October. The average daily import in the first half of October was about 1.8 million barrels, about 250,000 barrels more than the daily average in September [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21].