Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. On the one hand, cost increases provide support, and there are plans for manufacturers to halt production or reduce output. On the other hand, the post - holiday demand recovery is slow, and there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the downstream polysilicon market, with supply exceeding demand. The overall downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon inventory was at a high level of 253,000 tons, while organic silicon inventory was at a low level of 55,100 tons with a production profit of - 582 yuan/ton. Alloy ingot inventory was also at a high level. The cost support in the Xinjiang region increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 20, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.09%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling increased and was near the historical average level, while the demand recovery was at a low level. The cost support increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,445 - 8,685 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The scheduled output for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The silicon wafer output last week was 14.35 GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, but the production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was expected to continue to recover [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 467,790 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 414,990 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 20, the basis of the 12 contract was - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 12 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continued to increase, and the demand was expected to recover in the medium - term. The cost support was strengthened, and the polysilicon 2512 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,470 - 51,210 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts showed an upward trend, with the 01 contract increasing by 0.91%, the 02 contract by 1.02%, etc. The social inventory increased by 3.12% week - on - week, while the main port inventory remained unchanged [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 3.76%, the 02 contract by 3.86%, etc. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% [16]. 3. Price and Cost Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends in sample regions are presented through various charts [18][25][27][33]. - Polysilicon: The price trends, basis trends, and cost trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [22]. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon, indicating the overall supply - demand situation in different time periods [35][38]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon, indicating the supply - demand relationship in the polysilicon market [62]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, production trends, price trends, import - export, and inventory trends are presented [41][43][48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand in the automotive and wheel hub sectors of the aluminum alloy market are presented [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The cost trends, price trends, inventory trends, production trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories are presented [59][65][68][71][74].
工业硅期货早报-20251021
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:33