建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251021

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs decreased after the National Day holiday due to lukewarm holiday demand, a significant increase in supply, and high overall inventory. The price stabilized and rebounded this week as low prices spurred sales. Considering the supply pressure and the seasonal pattern, the rebound height and strength of the spot price are expected to be limited. The futures market followed the spot market down after the holiday and has been oscillating at a low level this week. The market funds are gradually shifting from the 11 - contract to the 12 - contract. The overall trend is still bearish on rebounds, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended for options trading. The earliest inflection point in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals may occur early next year, and weekly elimination data is recommended for tracking [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The main contract prices of eggs decreased. The 2601 contract closed at 3166, down 0.031% from the previous settlement; the 2511 contract closed at 2770, down 1.74%; the 2512 contract closed at 2920, down 1.52%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.12 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Treat the market as bearish on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options for options trading. Pay attention to weekly elimination data to track the medium - to - long - term fundamental inflection point [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Laying Hen Inventory: As of the end of September, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase, with a continuous increase for 9 months [8]. - Chick Hatchlings: In September, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.2 million, a decrease from August and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The low breeding profits in the past three months have started to change farmers' mindset about expanding production capacity [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - Hen Culling: In the three weeks up to October 16, the national hen culling volumes were 20.32 million, 19.76 million, and 20.12 million, respectively. As of October 16, the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from last week and 2 days later than last month [17].