建信期货多晶硅日报-20251021

Report Information - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract declined. The closing price of the PS2512 contract was 52,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The trading volume was 71,494 lots, and the open interest was 79,793 lots, with a net decrease of 10,118 lots. The spot price of n-type polycrystalline silicon re-feeding material had a transaction price range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The basis of the PS2512 contract was 4,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The expected output of polycrystalline silicon in October is not less than 130,000 tons, an increase of more than 30,000 tons compared to the monthly output before the anti-involution policy (June). The current output level can meet the terminal demand of about 63GW. The expected monthly output of silicon wafers and solar cells is 60.12GW and 47GW respectively, while the terminal demand has shrunk to about 10GW. With the export demand remaining at about 40GW, the pressure in the industrial chain will be transmitted from the bottom up. The weak fundamentals will drag down the continuous price increase. However, the policy-driven factor takes precedence over the fundamentals. There is a policy to support the bottom of the spot price, and the market also has positive expectations for storage or increased production cuts. Therefore, the spot price remains stable, and the futures price fluctuates widely within the current range. During the period when funds are sensitive to news, market rumors should be treated with caution [4]. Market News - On October 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, an increase of 540 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - From January to August, the cumulative new installation was 230.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, the new installation in August was only 7.36GW, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month-on-month decrease of 33% [5]. - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year (the growth rate of added value is the real growth rate after deducting price factors). On a month-on-month basis, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.64% in September. From January to September, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5]. - From January to September, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased by 3.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [5]. - On October 16, there were rumors that a polycrystalline silicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a co-managed account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5].