建信期货油脂日报-20251021

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+330, and from December to January was OI2601+270. The basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+430, and from December to January was OI2601+370. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in October was Y2501+210, from October to November was Y2501+220, from December to January was Y2601+280, from February to May was Y2501+150, from March to May was Y2501+130, and from May to July was Y2501+10. The basis price of Grade 3 soybean oil was 01+170, and the basis price of crude soybean oil was 01+50. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remained stable, with the price of 24-degree palm oil at 01-70. [7] - Market Analysis: The Malaysian market was closed due to holidays. The three major domestic oils continued to adjust, mainly dragged down by the recent decline in the international crude oil market. The upcoming restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the visit of the Canadian Foreign Minister to China affected market sentiment in the short term. The strong performance of CBOT soybeans boosted the domestic soybean oil market. The rapeseed oil market gave back its previous gains, and the spread between January and May contracts weakened again, but the spot basis continued to rise. The news about palm oil was mixed, and Indonesia's B50 policy was positive for the distant contracts. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the medium- and long-term strategy is to buy on dips and roll over long positions. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. The contract volume was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of 24-degree and below palm oil was 530,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of high-grade palm oil was 19,000 tons, the same as the previous week. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: According to data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from October 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.86% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 5.76% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.21% month-on-month. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 to 15 was 606,292 tons, an increase of 49.8% compared with the export volume of 404,688 tons from September 1 to 15. The export volume to China was 55,300 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the same period last month. [8] - Indian Palm Oil Imports: The Indian Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said that India's palm oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May as refineries switched to cheaper soybean oil, and the import volume of soybean oil reached a three-year high. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest level since May. [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Crop Planting Progress: Brazilian farmers have planted soybeans on 23.27% of the expected area in 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. [14] - US Soybean Crushing: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released monthly crushing data on Wednesday, showing that the soybean crushing volume in September increased significantly, reaching the fourth highest monthly level on record and the highest level in the same period in history. This was because the US soybean processing industry had recovered from the seasonal equipment maintenance shutdown before the autumn soybean harvest, and the production pace had accelerated significantly. [14]