建信期货工业硅日报-20251021

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. Si2511 closed at 8,565 yuan/ton, up 0.88%, with a trading volume of 190,332 lots and an open interest of 114,236 lots, a net decrease of 17,557 lots [4] - Spot prices: 553 ranged from 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 from 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Spot prices remained stable. Enterprises had insufficient willingness to cut production voluntarily under profitable conditions, and the demand side lacked growth momentum [5] - On the supply side, production cuts were imminent in Southwest China, while output continued to increase in Northwest China. The weekly output in the third week of October was high at 97,000 tons [5] - Monthly demand for polysilicon was stable. If the industry reached a new consensus on further production cuts, it would be negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The demand for silicone was 120,000 tons, and the demand for exports and alloys was 120,000 tons. There was no de - stocking drive in the market, and there was a lack of specific policy follow - up in the industrial silicon industry [5] - In the fourth quarter, the marginal change in the industry was that the dry season in Southwest China would increase power prices and lead to seasonal voluntary production cuts. The current price was stalemated, the market lacked a driving force, and it mainly fluctuated within the current range [5] Group 3: Market News - On October 21, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 49,303 lots, a net decrease of 811 lots from the previous trading day [6] - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year (actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6] - From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [6]