建信期货棉花日报-20251021

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream quoted price of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. Some cotton merchants slightly lowered the basis after the rise of Zhengzhou cotton last week [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn changed little. Benefiting from the recent sharp cooling in the areas south of the Yangtze River, downstream consumption slightly recovered. Downstream enterprises still mainly purchased on a "use - as - you - go" basis, and the scale of new orders was limited. The opening rate of spinning mills slightly rebounded but was still lower than the same period of previous years. The price of the pure cotton cloth market was stable and weak, and fabric mills maintained a slight loss [7]. - In the overseas market, due to the 19 - day government shutdown in the US, the available reference data was limited, and the external market was mainly driven by the domestic market sentiment. In the domestic market, affected by the lower - than - expected increase in production in the main producing areas, the purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise steadily, supporting the rebound of the futures price. As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The downstream terminal demand slightly recovered, but the characteristic of "off - peak in peak season" still existed. Domestic consumption performed better than exports, with the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increasing by 4.7% year - on - year. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needed to be consumed. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. Group 3: Industry News - In September 2025, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [9]. - In September 2025, the income from clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China was 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative income from clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China was 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]