大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 74,820 - 76,580. [9] - The overall situation shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - Demand - side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost - side: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF has increased, but it is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,778 yuan/ton, a 0.45% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,852 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite is 77,485 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 6,553 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][11] - Market Indicators: On October 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, and the short position increased. [11] - Leveraging Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased from 846 to 851 dollars/ton, a 0.59% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,350 to 74,000 yuan/ton, a 0.89% increase. [16] - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 74.39%, a 4.32% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production of lithium concentrate, lepidolite, salt - lake lithium, and recycled lithium all showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 10.30%. [18][19] - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rates and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products all increased to varying degrees. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60%, with the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 26.61% and the loading volume of ternary batteries increasing by 20.54%. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased, with production increasing by 16.25% and sales increasing by 14.98%. [18][19] - Inventory Data: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.59% decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.34%, the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 3.40%, and the inventory of other sources increased by 0.87%. [18][19]