Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the main line may enter rotation, and the index opened higher and fluctuated. In the bond market, the bond futures weakened. The precious metals market showed an upward trend despite the easing of geopolitical and trade frictions. Different commodities in the commodity futures market also have their own characteristics, such as copper prices oscillating due to social inventory accumulation during the peak season, and alumina prices continuing to be under pressure due to supply - side pressure and weak demand [2][5][8] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market opened higher and fluctuated narrowly on Monday. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures all rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts oscillated narrowly. The China - US trade friction is in the mutual exploration stage. The market risk preference may be suppressed in the short term, but the index is expected to fall first and then rebound, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at a low price or try to sell put options at the support level [2][3][4] - Bond Futures: Bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net repurchase of funds was conducted on October 20. The overall economic situation shows that the pressure to achieve the annual economic target is not significant, and the necessity of policy strengthening has decreased. The key factors affecting the bond market in the short term are risk preference, the implementation of the new fund redemption fee regulations, and the progress of the China - US trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the TL contract [5][6][7] Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose synchronously with risk assets. The US economic operation and employment market are affected by government "shutdown" and trade frictions. The Fed's policy interest - rate cut path may strengthen the expectation of continuous easing and depress the US dollar credit. Geopolitical and other risk events are frequent, and investors may increase the allocation of precious metals. In the short term, before the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October, there are uncertainties in Trump's internal and external and tariff policies and the China - US trade negotiation process. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips. For silver, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the London inter - bank lending and leasing rates, and it is advisable to be cautious in unilateral operations [8][9][10] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot quotes of container shipping to Europe show different ranges. The futures price of the main contract rose on the previous day. The current spot price is expected to gradually increase, which will drive the futures price to rise. It is expected that the short - term market will show a strong - side oscillating pattern. It is recommended to buy the main EC contract below 1600 [12][13] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The social inventory of copper increased during the peak season, and the copper price oscillated. The macro factors such as the potential US bank "thunderstorm" and the China - US tariff negotiation deadline need to be concerned. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the production of refined copper in October is expected to decline. The high copper price has a certain inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand has strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 84000 - 85000 for the main contract [13][14][18] - Alumina: The alumina market continued its weak pattern, and the futures price continued to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The high - cost enterprises may reduce production to relieve the operation pressure. It is expected that the short - term spot price will continue to be under pressure, and the reference range for the main contract is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [18][20][21] - Aluminum: The aluminum price maintained a high - level oscillating pattern, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively light. The macro situation is mixed, and the fundamentals show that the supply is stable, the demand has the resilience of the peak season, and the inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [21][22][23] - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed an interval oscillating trend. The cost support is obvious, the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, the demand shows a mild recovery, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a strong - side oscillating trend, and the reference range for the main contract is 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [23][25][26] - Zinc: The zinc price oscillated. The supply is relatively loose, but the increase in production in the second half of the year may be limited. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the overseas inventory is low. The expected interest - rate cuts support the zinc price. The short - term price may be driven by macro factors, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. It is recommended that the main contract refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 [26][27][29] - Tin: The tin price oscillated at a high level. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the demand is weak. The traditional consumer electronics and home appliance markets have weak demand, while the AI and photovoltaic industries drive partial consumption. It is expected that the short - term macro - level fluctuations will increase, and it is recommended to pay attention to the buying points caused by the decline in macro sentiment [30][32][33] - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level, and the demand for electroplating and stainless steel is general. The overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. It is expected that the price will oscillate within the range of 120000 - 126000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [33][35][36] - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel price maintained a weak pattern. The macro - level interest - rate cut expectations are rising, the cost of nickel ore has support, but the price of nickel iron is weakening, and the peak - season demand is not significantly boosted. It is expected that the short - term price will be weakly adjusted, and the reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 [37][38][39] - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. The supply increased during the peak season, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory continued to decline. The Pilbara Minerals will hold a lithium concentrate auction, and the demand - supply gap is expected to expand in October. It is expected that the short - term price will be strong, and the reference range for the main contract is 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [41][42][43] Black Metals - Steel: The spot price of steel was stable. The cost of carbon elements has support, and the cost of iron elements may decline. The supply of iron elements increased in the first nine months, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The domestic demand is expected to be weak, but there is a policy support expectation in the fourth quarter, and the export is at a high level. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the plate inventory needs to be reduced through production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the carbon - iron arbitrage [44][45][47] - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures continued to oscillate weakly. The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand from steel mills is weakening, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected that the iron ore price will be weak due to the weak steel price. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral operation and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling iron ore [48][50][51] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures oscillated upward. The domestic coking coal market rebounded after a slight decline, and the downstream procurement increased. The supply of domestic mines increased after the holiday, and the supply of imported Mongolian coal was tight. The demand from iron and steel enterprises was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at a low price in the short term and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [52][53][54] - Coke: The coke futures oscillated upward. The second - round price increase of coke is waiting to be implemented. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight, and the coking industry's production decreased due to losses. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory is moderately reduced. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at a low price and consider the arbitrage of buying coking coal and selling coke [55][57][58] Agricultural Products - Meal Products: The price of domestic soybean meal in the spot market rose steadily on October 20, and the price of rapeseed meal also increased. The demand expectation of US soybeans has improved, but the Chinese procurement is still zero. The new US soybeans have a high excellent - rate, and the Brazilian new - crop soybeans are sown smoothly. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is still high. It is expected that the spot price will be difficult to improve this year, but the downward space is limited. The M2601 contract has support at around 2900, and the 1 - 5 positive spread may have opportunities [59][60][61] - Pigs: The spot price of pigs rebounded slightly. The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the second - fattening boosts the pig price. In the long term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will continue to be released, and the pig price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and hold the LH3 - 7 reverse spread [62][63]
广发早知道：汇总版-20251021
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:48