建信期货钢材日评-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Metal Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Conditions on October 20 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Trading Volume: RB2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton with a -0.03% change, trading 1,232,540 lots; HC2601 closed at 3215 yuan/ton with a -0.12% change, trading 539,570 lots; SS2512 closed at 12595 yuan/ton with a -0.16% change, trading 124,780 lots [5] - Position Changes: RB2601's open interest increased by 1,609 lots; HC2601's increased by 7,152 lots [5] - Fund Flows: RB2601 had a 0.15 - billion - yuan inflow; HC2601 had a 0.28 - billion - yuan inflow [5] 3.2 Spot Market - Price Changes: Some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices declined. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Hefei dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Zhengzhou dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - Rebar 2601 contract's daily KDJ indicator showed a golden cross, and hot - rolled coil 2601's was close to a golden cross. Both contracts' daily MACD green bars narrowed [8] 4. Market Outlook 4.1 News and Policy - Trump's attitude towards China - US trade tariffs softened, which eased market concerns. He will meet with China in about two weeks and is optimistic about the negotiation. The US Treasury Secretary also said the meeting may lead to a broader trade agreement [9][10] 4.2 Fundamentals - Supply and Demand: In the past 6 weeks, the weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly but remained high; weekly demand rebounded from the lowest since late February but was lower than the end - September level; social inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly from the highest since mid - April [10] - Raw Materials: In the past 2 weeks, iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills and imported sintered powder ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills dropped significantly; in the past 4 weeks, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 2.2% on top of a 3.7% increase in the previous 4 weeks, and arrivals increased by 11.9% after a 1.4% decrease in the previous 4 weeks; coke profit was briefly positive and then turned negative, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1; steel mills reduced coke inventories after the holiday; coking coal prices remained firm [11] 4.3 Forecast - Steel demand has seasonal improvement, but trade conflicts remain uncertain. Steel futures prices are expected to be more volatile, with a possible first - decline - then - rebound trend. Attention should be paid to market expectations before China - US trade negotiations, raw material prices after most steel mills' profits turn negative, and the impact of low temperatures on terminal demand [11] 5. Industry News - Economic Growth: The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the Q3 GDP growth slowdown to international trade protectionism and domestic economic structural adjustment [12] - Policy Adjustment: The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and nuclear power [13] - Production Data: From January to September 2025, national coke production was 377.16 million tons (up 3.5% YoY), pig iron production was 645.86 million tons (down 1.1% YoY), crude steel production was 746.25 million tons (down 2.9% YoY), and steel production was 1.10385 billion tons (up 5.4% YoY). In September, national coal production was 411.51 million tons (down 1.8% YoY), and industrial power generation was 826.2 billion kWh (up 1.5% YoY) [13] - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan (down 13.9% YoY), construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters (down 9.4% YoY), new commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters (down 5.5% YoY), and sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan (down 7.9% YoY) [13] - Railway Transport: In the first three quarters of 2025, national railway freight volume was 3.912 billion tons (up 2.8% YoY) [14] - Corporate Performance: Baotou Steel's semi - annual asset - liability ratio in 2025 decreased by 0.42 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and financial expenses decreased by 6.29% YoY [14] - International Trade: In September 2025, China exported 6.4 million tons of steel plates (down 6.1% YoY) and 1.68 million tons of steel bars (up 25.0% YoY). In September, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 48.5673 million tons (down 0.48% YoY, up 9.58% MoM) [14] 6. Data Overview - The report presents various steel - related data charts, including prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [16][17][20]