Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of fundamentals. Although the domestic peak season is slightly lower than expected, considering the production cuts of domestic smelters due to raw material shortages and the good demand in the power grid and auto market at the end of the year, the fundamental support logic remains unchanged [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper rose first and then fell. The market risk preference rebounded due to the possible new - round Sino - US negotiation. The release of China's macro - economic data and the convening of an important meeting strengthened the policy stimulus expectation, pushing up the price. But the increase narrowed in the afternoon due to increased selling. The spot price rose by 855 to 85630, and the premium rose by 5 to 60. The SMM statistics showed that the social inventory increased by 0.91 million tons to 18.66 million tons. The spot import loss narrowed to 620, LME0 - 3 turned to - 16.83, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 13715 tons [10] - Supply and Demand Analysis: The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The supply pressure of domestic spot is expected to decline as the subsequent domestic arrival volume is expected to decrease. The domestic market has continuous inventory accumulation while the overseas market has inventory reduction [10] Group 5: Industry News - Import and Export Data: In September 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,586,873.52 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The imports of refined copper were 374,075.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The exports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 95,869 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%; the cumulative exports from January to September were 1,142,833 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [11][12] - Mining Incident: MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is facing the impact of informal mining activities. Illegal miners have extracted about 90,000 tons of copper in the past 15 years, which is higher than the 74,000 tons estimated in mid - 2024. The Sulfobamba community where the mine is located has mined copper on its own and refused to sell land for MMG's development [12]
建信期货铜期货日报-20251021
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-21 01:50