碳酸锂期货日报-20251021

1. Report Basic Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Carbonate lithium futures fluctuated slightly down, with the 11 - 01 spread expanding to 240, and near - month contracts performing slightly weaker. The spot was continuously at a discount to the futures, with the spot price rising by 650 to 74,000 during the day, Australian ore rising by 10 to 860, and lithium mica ore remaining flat at 1,825. The production losses of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica were narrowed to 1,852 and 6,553 respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 79,000, and the demand from downstream electrolyte and battery manufacturers continued to pick up [9]. - The current carbonate lithium market features high supply, high demand, and social inventory reduction. It is expected that with the continuous increase in battery production, domestic carbonate lithium inventory will continue to decline, which will support the price of carbonate lithium. Therefore, the downside space of carbonate lithium price is limited, but the upside space depends on the acceleration of social inventory reduction [9]. 3. Industry News Import Data - In September 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports were 19,600 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease and a 20.5% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile were 10,800 tons, a 30.8% month - on - month decrease and a 22.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 6,948 tons, a 63.4% month - on - month increase and a 242.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China's carbonate lithium imports were 173,000 tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase. In September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 1,473 tons, a 20.3% month - on - month increase and a 74.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 10,654 tons, an 81.9% year - on - year increase [12]. - In September 2025, China's ternary cathode material imports were 8,906 tons, a 17.6% month - on - month increase and an 87.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, the imports of lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM type) were 6,871 tons, and the imports of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA type) were 2,034 tons. From January to September, the cumulative imports of cathode materials in China were 53,477 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease [12]. Renewable Energy Report - According to the latest report of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), although the global new installed capacity of renewable energy reached a record 581.9 GW in 2024, the current growth rate is still far from the 11.2 TW target set by COP28 for 2030. To achieve this goal, the world needs to add about 1.122 TW of new renewable energy installed capacity annually from 2025 to 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 16.6%. Photovoltaic is the main growth driver, with 452 GW added in 2024, accounting for nearly 80% of the total renewable energy increment. To achieve the 6.15 TW photovoltaic target in 2030, the average annual new installed capacity needs to reach 716 GW. Meanwhile, the growth of energy storage facilities was strong in 2024, with the global new energy storage capacity reaching 74 GW, doubling that of 2023. IRENA called on countries to update their national climate commitments before COP30, double their renewable energy targets, and increase annual investment to at least $1.4 trillion to make up for the current development gap and promote the clean energy transition [12][13]