大越期货尿素早报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, and the market situation is bearish. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today. Although international urea prices are strong, they have limited support for domestic prices, and both industrial and agricultural demands are weak [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a high level, and comprehensive inventory has significantly accumulated. Both industrial and agricultural demands are weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but it has limited support for domestic prices. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly [5]. - Likely Factors: International prices are strong [6]. - Negative Factors: High operating daily production, weak domestic demand, and continued inventory accumulation [6]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Specific Indicators - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.4%, indicating a bearish trend [5]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), showing a bearish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish outlook [5]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The price of the delivery - grade spot is 1,550 (unchanged) [5]. - Futures: The UR01 contract price is 1,602 (unchanged), the UR05 contract price is 1,672 (unchanged), and the UR09 contract price is 1,705 (unchanged) [7]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 6,294 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 2.061 million tons (+203,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.615 million tons, and UR port inventory is 446,000 tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of urea from 2018 to 2025E, including data on capacity, capacity growth rate, production, net imports, import dependence, apparent consumption, ending inventory, actual consumption, and consumption growth rate. For example, in 2019, the capacity was 24.455 million tons, with a growth rate of 8.9%, and the production was 22.4 million tons [10].