大越期货沪铝早报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors, resulting in an expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices. The long - term outlook is positive due to the impact of carbon neutrality on the industry, but in the short - term, there are both bullish and bearish factors at play. The fundamentals are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion and downstream demand being weak, and the real estate sector remaining sluggish. The market is also affected by the game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a sluggish real estate market. The basis shows a slight premium of the spot over the futures, also considered neutral. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2749 tons to 122028 tons last week, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the average trending upwards, indicating a bullish signal. The net position of the main players is long and increasing, also bullish. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices in Shanghai decreased by 375, and the middle price was 70770. The total volume of warehouse receipts was 70798 tons, with an increase of 699 tons. The South China storage price decreased by 450 to 70690, and the Yangtze River price decreased by 400 to 70870. The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China shows different situations from 2018 to 2024. There were supply shortages from 2018 - 2023, with shortages ranging from 4.31 to 68.61 million tons. In 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 15 million tons [22].