广发期货日评-20251021

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade friction is in a stage of mutual exploration. Market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the long - term upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. [2] - Policy factors for treasury bonds have not yet been finalized, and the bond market is weak. [2] - Precious metals are rising in sync with the US, and the market risk appetite has recovered. [2] - The shipping index (European line) is experiencing short - term fluctuations, and the main contract is showing a downward trend. [2] - The steel industry has an oversupply of plates and needs to reduce production to destock. [2] - The supply - side disturbances in the iron ore market are weakening, and the market is showing signs of weakness. [2] - The coal market is showing positive signs, with rising coal prices and increased downstream restocking demand. [2] - The non - ferrous metals market is generally in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. [2] - The energy and chemical industry has a complex situation, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, shock, and short - term support. [2] - The agricultural products market has various trends, including price rebounds, narrow - range shocks, and downward trends. [2] - Special commodities and new energy products also have their own unique price trends and investment suggestions. [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - Stock Indices: Due to Sino - US trade friction, stock indices are expected to first decline and then rebound. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Conservative investors can wait for volatility to subside and buy at low prices, or try to sell out - of - the - money put options. [2] - Treasury Bonds: Policy factors are uncertain. Unilateral strategies are recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to key meetings and incremental policies. Positive arbitrage can be considered for the TL contract due to the recovery of IRR. [2] - Precious Metals: Gold is recommended to be bought at low prices. Silver should be operated with caution in the short term, and out - of - the money put options can be sold when observing the decline in volatility. [2] Black - Steel: There is an oversupply of plates. Unilateral operations can wait and see, and multi - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil operations are recommended. Monthly spreads are mainly for high - level reverse arbitrage, and the spread between coils and rebar and profit margins are converging. [2] - Iron Ore: The supply - side disturbances are weakening. Unilateral operations should wait and see in the range of 750 - 800. Arbitrage can be multi - coking coal and short - iron ore. [2] - Coking Coal: It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 at low prices in the range of 1150 - 1300. Arbitrage can be long - coking coal and short - coke. [2] - Coke: Buy coke 2601 at low prices in the range of 1650 - 1750. Arbitrage can be long - coking coal and short - coke. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The social inventory is increasing during the peak season, and the copper price is in a state of shock. Pay attention to the support level of 84000 - 85000. [2] - Aluminum: The social inventory is in a state of gentle destocking, and the price is fluctuating around the 21000 center. [2] - Zinc: The fundamentals change little, and the zinc price is in a state of shock. [2] - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price is in a high - level shock. Look for buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment declines. [2] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is showing a slight upward trend in shock, and stainless steel has weak industrial sentiment and insufficient demand. [2] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The market has a loose supply and an unclear macro - outlook, so the short - term oil price is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices. [2] - Other Chemical Products: Each product has different trends. For example, PX and PTA are in a weak shock, and short - fiber has short - term support. Different investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, arbitrage, and short - selling at high prices are recommended. [2] Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: Different products have different trends. For example, soybeans are affected by the improvement of US demand expectations, and palm oil is in a narrow - range shock. [2] - Livestock and Poultry: The pig price is rebounding due to the profit from the fat - lean price difference and the second - round fattening. [2] - Other Agricultural Products: Each product has its own price trend, such as sugar showing a downward trend, and cotton being in a range - bound shock. [2] Special Commodities and New Energy - Special Commodities: Glass is showing a weakening trend, and rubber needs to pay attention to the raw material price increase during the peak season. [2] - New Energy: Polysilicon futures are showing a downward trend with reduced positions, and lithium carbonate is showing a strong upward trend. [2]