Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. In the macro - aspect, attention should be paid to tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and the COMEX - LME spread. In the fundamental aspect, tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. High copper prices have a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure significant and demand weak. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes, downstream acceptance of high prices, and inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in a range - bound shock. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty pose constraints. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. Demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but has limited upward elasticity. The main contract is expected to range from 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand is weak. Considering the strong supply - side influence, attention should be paid to buying points when the macro - sentiment falls. The subsequent trend depends on the recovery of Myanmar's supply in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound. Macro risks have increased, and there is some positive news from the ore end. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The main contract is expected to range from 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply [14][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be strong in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro risks [17][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.01% to 85,630 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 31.75% to 3,570 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% month - on - month to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% week - on - week to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.10% to 20,930 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% month - on - month to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions showed an increasing trend [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% month - on - month to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 21,870 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 101.06 yuan/ton to - 4,429 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% month - on - month to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.36% to 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.08% to - 142.00 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month to 10,510 tons, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 63.90% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 122,100 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% month - on - month to 32,200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 3.93% week - on - week to 61,188 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.89% to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 87,260 tons, and the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.38% to 84,538 tons [17].
《有色》日报-20251021
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-21 02:41