广发期货《能源化工》日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Supply is expected to contract, but overall remains weak. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [1]. - PTA: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Spot basis has weakened, but the downward space is limited. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and treat TA1 - 5 with rolling reverse arbitrage [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply is abundant, with expected inventory accumulation in October and high accumulation in November - December. Suggest to short EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of call option EG2601 - C - 4250, and conduct EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage at high prices [1]. - Short - fiber: Supply is at a high level, and terminal demand in Q4 is expected to be weak. Prices are supported in the short - term due to low inventory. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading, and shrink the processing margin when it is above 1000 in the range of 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle - chip: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, prices fluctuate with the cost side. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for PR single - side trading, and expect the main - contract processing margin to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, with weak price drive. Suggest BZ2603 to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [2]. - Styrene: Supply will remain high, and demand support is limited. Prices are still under pressure in the short - term. Suggest to short EB12 on price rebounds [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Short - term supply is increasing, and demand support is weak, with prices tending to be weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is demand support. Suggest to short in the short - term and track downstream restocking [3]. - PVC: Supply and demand pressure is high, and the contradiction is difficult to resolve. Cost provides bottom support. Suggest to stop short - selling and wait for changes in demand [3]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Prices may continue to oscillate. Focus on overseas device stability, customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival. Pay attention to port inventory reduction and overseas gas - limiting expectations [4]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Supply pressure is prominent in the medium - to - long - term, and demand lacks bright spots. The 01 - contract upside is limited. Prices are under pressure due to macro - environment, cost, and supply - demand factors [6]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Polyester Industry - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) decreased slightly. CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged. Most upstream prices were stable or slightly decreased [1]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: Most downstream polyester product prices decreased slightly, and cash flows showed different changes [1]. - PX - related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX remained unchanged, while PX spot price in RMB decreased by 1.2% [1]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot price decreased by 0.6%, and futures prices also decreased slightly [1]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: MEG spot price decreased by 0.4%, and futures prices had minor changes [1]. - Industry Operating Rates: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased, while PTA and MEG operating rates increased slightly [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased slightly, and most upstream prices remained stable [2]. - Styrene - related Prices and Spreads: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and cash flows and spreads changed [2]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Cash flows of most downstream products improved [2]. - Inventory: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - Industry Operating Rates: Operating rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industries decreased [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: Caustic soda prices decreased, PVC prices remained stable, and futures prices had minor changes [3]. - Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: FOB quotes and export profits decreased [3]. - PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: CFR quotes decreased slightly, and export profits decreased significantly [3]. - Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates decreased, and some profit indicators changed [3]. - Demand: Downstream Operating Rates: Some downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [3]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased slightly [3]. Methanol Industry - Methanol Prices and Spreads: Futures prices had minor changes, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [4]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased, while port and social inventories decreased [4]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Domestic upstream operating rate decreased, and overseas upstream operating rate increased [4]. Polyolefin Industry - Polyolefin Prices and Spreads: Futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased slightly, and spot prices also had minor changes [6]. - PE and PP Non - standard Prices: Some non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased slightly [6]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [6]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE and PP device operating rates changed slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [6].