广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251021

1. Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up in factories and mid - stream delivery warehouses. The supply is in excess compared to current demand, and without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [1]. - Glass manufacturers' sales have improved, but the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Pay attention to spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [1]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased, with drops ranging from 0.85% to 3.28%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable. Glass futures prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while soda ash futures prices rose slightly [1]. - Supply: Soda ash production rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and weekly output increased by 3.37% to 77.08 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16% to 16.13 million tons, and PV daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 6282.40 ten - thousand heavy boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 165.98 million tons [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices first rose on news of a company's production cut and then fell back. In October, supply increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. However, considering cost factors and the approaching dry season, prices may move up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices if the 11 - contract price drops to 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Spot prices of most industrial silicon varieties remained unchanged, and basis differences decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread dropping by 97.30% [2]. - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [2]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 3.12% to 56.20 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7.15% to 31.55 million tons [2]. 3. Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Polysilicon futures prices fell after opening on Monday, possibly due to some funds taking profits. The continuous increase in polysilicon warehouse receipts pressured the November contract price. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to increased supply. Whether the increased production can be digested by demand in the fourth - quarter peak - installation season will significantly affect prices. The price is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side orders. The supply in Southwest China will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices. Guard against the risk of inventory accumulation if demand is lower than expected [4]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The average price of most polysilicon and related products remained stable. The main contract price of futures decreased by 3.82% [4]. - Fundamentals: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 11.85% to 14.35 GM, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons. Polysilicon imports increased by 28.46%, and exports decreased by 28.16% [4]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory increased by 5.42% to 25.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.16% to 17.31 GM [4]. 4. Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - The log futures market fluctuated. The 01 contract is relatively strong. With the increase in foreign quotes and port fees, there is strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, the futures price has certain support at the bottom. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [5]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Log futures prices of different contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged [5]. - Supply: Monthly port shipments increased by 6.00% to 176.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55% [5]. - Inventory: National log inventory decreased by 2.34% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the average daily log出库 volume increased by 10% to 6.32 million cubic meters [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - In the short - term, the rebound in raw material prices supports rubber prices, but the expected improvement in weather in northeastern Thailand may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Demand has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still adjusting production flexibly to control inventory. In the short - term, rubber prices may follow the macro - led market. If raw material supply is smooth, prices may decline further; if not, prices are expected to be around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.35%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.69%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. - Fundamentals: Production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August showed different trends. Tire production and import of natural rubber increased, while tire exports decreased [7]. - Inventory: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07% to 43483 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 2.93% to 40119 tons [7].