ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20251021

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which differs from trend trading that relies on long-term market predictions. Grid trading is based on price fluctuations and aims to profit from natural price movements within a certain range, making it suitable for frequently fluctuating markets. In a volatile market, investors can enhance returns by repeatedly capturing small price differences before adjusting positions and strategies when a new market direction becomes clear [4][12]. Group 2: Characteristics of Suitable Grid Trading Targets - Suitable characteristics for grid trading targets include: 1) selection of on-market targets; 2) stable long-term trends; 3) low transaction costs; 4) good liquidity; 5) high volatility. Based on these characteristics, equity ETFs are considered relatively suitable for grid trading [4][12]. Group 3: Analysis of ETF Grid Trading Targets - The report highlights three key ETFs for grid trading: 1. Saudi ETF (159329.SZ): This ETF is one of the two domestic tools linked to the Saudi capital market, capturing the long-term economic transformation benefits under Saudi's "Vision 2030". The plan aims to reduce oil dependency and diversify the economy, with strategic goals including increasing the non-oil GDP share from 16% to at least 50% and elevating Saudi's global economic ranking from 19th to 15th. As of October 20, the financial sector accounted for over 40% of the ETF's holdings, with consumer and technology sectors exceeding 20%, while traditional fossil energy represented only about 10% [4][13]. 2. Banking ETF (512800.SH): This ETF, tracking the CSI 800 Banking Index, has a dividend yield of 4.40% as of September 30, 2025, significantly higher than the market average and the ten-year government bond yield. It is expected to remain a key allocation direction for medium to long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies, as they seek to mitigate the impact of declining interest rates and address "asset scarcity" [5][15]. 3. Military Industry ETF (512660.SH): The report notes that China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high. However, this budget still represents less than 1.3% of GDP, significantly lower than the U.S. and Russia. The ETF tracks the CSI Defense Index, focusing on core areas such as aviation equipment, missiles, and new materials, and is expected to benefit from improvements in the defense sector's fundamentals [6][7][17]. Group 4: Recommendations for Grid Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to use grid trading strategies by selecting several suitable ETFs with low correlation to form a diversified portfolio. This can include combinations of different types of ETFs, such as "broad-based + sector" or "A-shares + Hong Kong stocks", which not only helps to spread risk but also enhances capital utilization through rotation effects [20][21].