沪铜产业日报-20251021

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact, keeping ore prices firm. Due to many smelter overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially reducing the operating rate, leading to a gradual contraction of refined copper supply in China. High copper prices suppress downstream demand as buyers adopt a cautious and wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a dull trading sentiment in the spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 85,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,655 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 50 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 231,226 lots, up 4,316 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,387 lots, down 2,544 lots. The LME copper inventory is 137,175 tons, down 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 37,678 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,825 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 330 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 23.35 dollars/ton, down 6.52 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the TC fee of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.1 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 58,790 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,770.6 billion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,370 million pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.75%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.95%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 19.45%, up 0.0025%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0641 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. China's LPR in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month. New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed. As of October 17, the China Development Bank has invested 189.35 billion yuan, expected to drive a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan; the Export - Import Bank of China has invested funds with 83% going to major economic provinces; the Agricultural Development Bank of China has completed 100.111 billion yuan of the 150 - billion - yuan fund investment, expected to drive a total project investment of over 1.26 trillion yuan [2].