瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may face a situation where supply gradually decreases while demand remains stable. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of supply contraction and stable demand with high industry inventory. Light - position oscillating trades are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,965 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main - contract position was 234,936 lots, up 3,263 lots; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,766.5 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 487,125 tons, down 4,100 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.58, up 0.05 [2]. - Alumina Futures: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,810 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 33 yuan, down 8 yuan; the main - contract position was 351,214 lots, down 3,945 lots [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 120 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main - contract position was 12,810 lots, down 269 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,910 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium was 5.2 dollars/ton, down 7.68 dollars [2]. - Alumina Spot: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of alumina was 25 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The national alumina production in the current month was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production start - up rate was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the social inventory was 58 million tons, up 0.80 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The output of aluminum products was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot: The output was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons; the total built - in production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The monthly automobile production was 322.70 million vehicles, up 47.46 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate: The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - For Shanghai aluminum options, the 20 - day historical volatility was 8.52%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.54%, down 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.93%, down 0.0015 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.21, up 0.0121 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table, and relevant issues will be discussed [2]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with industrial added value and consumer spending showing different trends, and fixed - asset investment decreased slightly [2]. - China's LPR in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, and there is still room for moderate monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter [2]. - New policy - based financial instruments are being rapidly deployed, with large - scale funds being invested by major policy banks to support economic development [2].