Report Date - The report is dated October 21, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,550 yuan/ton. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed. In September, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 4.1 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Fundamentally, the pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 93,000 tons on the raw material side, and the molten iron demand remained high and volatile. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 260 yuan/ton. In the market, the second - round inquiry price of the mainstream steel procurement was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry was 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, the factories still have a sentiment of holding up prices, waiting for the final pricing to guide the market. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On October 21, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,474 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,220 yuan/ton. Macroeconomically, from January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of semi - coke was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 435 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 380 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,746 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,474 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest: 576,922 lots, down 6,195 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 399,945 lots, down 10,326 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in SM: - 49,100 lots, down 2,192 lots; Net position of the top 20 in SF: - 25,888 lots, down 2,272 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 36 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 46,638 lots, down 998 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 11,400 lots, down 703 lots [2] Spot Market - Inner Mongolia ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Ferromanganese index average: 5,640 yuan/ton, down 31.9 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 254 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis: - 196 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.457 million tons, down 21,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Ferromanganese enterprise operating rate: 43.28%, up 0.09%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.48%, down 0.46% [2] - Ferromanganese supply: 208,810 tons, up 4,585 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 112,800 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - Ferromanganese manufacturers' inventory: 262,500 tons, up 20,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,080 tons, up 3,050 tons [2] - National steel mills' inventory of ferromanganese: 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; National steel mills' inventory of ferrosilicon: 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2] - Demand for ferromanganese from the five major steel types: 121,113 tons, down 960 tons; Demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types: 19,572.52 tons, down 182.08 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 84.25%, unchanged; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.31%, down 0.22% [2] - Crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.8786 million tons [2] Industry News - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% [2] - In September, the total import of coking coal was 10.9236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2] - In September, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 cities decreased month - on - month. All 70 cities' second - hand house prices fell, and 63 cities' new house prices decreased month - on - month. The decline of new house prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, but the new house price in Beijing increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline of second - hand house prices narrowed [2] - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251021
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-21 08:26