Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing destocking, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not shown a significant improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will remain stable in the short - term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,630 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,150 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,365 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 20 - gauge rubber 12 - 1 spread is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,785 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 152,738 lots, up 4,378 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 66,180 lots, up 3,153 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 22,376 lots, up 5,484 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 11,209 lots, down 610 lots [2]. - The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 129,080 tons, down 2,720 tons; the 20 - gauge rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 41,228 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is not provided; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is not provided [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shanghai rubber basis is - 850 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,017 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 652 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.37 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 54.01 Thai baht/kg, down 0.19 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.52%, up 1.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.26%, up 1.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.44%, down 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.43%, down 0.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 19 - 25, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which weakens the impact on tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which increases the impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month [2]. - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [2]. - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251021
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-21 09:53