Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, both raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined. In the spot market, transactions were generally at low prices. With the downward trend of spot prices, the inventory of trading enterprises decreased. After the price dropped to a relatively low level, as the liquidity of the spot market improved, the active participation of downstream buyers is expected to drive down the spot inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, most enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises increased significantly. However, the overall market showed no obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises were still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will be stable in the short - term. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2512 contract is expected to be between 10,800 - 11,300 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 200 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 72,808 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,020 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was 61.01 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.28; WTI crude oil was 57.52 US dollars/barrel, unchanged [2]. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 1,000 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.53 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 65.79%, a decrease of 1.58 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene was 3,050 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.53; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 74.82%, an increase of 8.41 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 184 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 0.05 [2]. - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers of cis - butadiene rubber was 1,300 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders was 4,860 tons, a decrease of 840 [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.72%, an increase of 13.65; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.52%, an increase of 17.46 [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million [2]. - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.08; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.17 days, a decrease of 0.53 [2]. 5. Industry News - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. 6. Output Forecast - Most previously maintained cis - butadiene rubber units have restarted, and domestic output has increased. Although there are expectations of maintenance for some units such as Qilu, Yangzi, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, some units have restarted. Maoming Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have increased production, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20251021
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-21 09:53