瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251021

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased slightly as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from restored capacity. Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. Low freight rates have weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, leading to an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week. [3] - Due to various factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports has fallen short of expectations, resulting in a decrease in methanol port inventories last week. The inventory in East China has decreased as提货 performance is good, while the inventory in South China has increased due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading. The expected methanol imports in October remain sufficient, and port inventories may still rise. [3] - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable and remained at a high level. There are no planned adjustments in the short - term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2268 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. [3] - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 1059019 lots, a decrease of 12237 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 138689 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 14092, a decrease of 810. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 99.7 tons (weekly), a decrease of 8.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 49.44 tons (weekly), an increase of 3.17 tons. [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 359900 tons (weekly), an increase of 20500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17%. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 40.88% (weekly), an increase of 6.77%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%. [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 72.52% (weekly), a decrease of 10.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.12% (weekly), a decrease of 1%. [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 92.39% (weekly), a decrease of 0.8%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.84% (daily), a decrease of 0.3%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3% (daily), a decrease of 0.05%. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.04%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.89 tons, an increase of 11.37 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 98.64%. [3] - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.14 tons, a decrease of 5.18 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.35 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.17 tons. [3] - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. [3]